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AP Poll: Republicans Divided, Hillary Still Leading

The latest AP poll shows Republicans are divided about who to support for President.

The poll showed the contest remains a virtual tie between Giuliani, the former New York mayor, at 24 percent and Thompson, the actor and former senator from Tennessee, at 19 percent. Not far behind at 15 percent is McCain while former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has 7 percent.

The numbers were about the same in last month's poll. Who's supporting Giuliani and Thompson?

Giuliani and Thompson each had about a quarter of those over 50, white males and married men. They also each had about one-fifth of conservatives, Southerners and evangelicals.

As to the Democrats, Hillary's lead remains strong. Here are the numbers:

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Poll: Giuliani Falling, Clinton Holding Lead in Big Three Early Primary States

A new a new L.A.Times/Bloomberg poll shows Rudy Giuliani trailing among Republicans in three critical states with early primaries, while Hillary Clinton maintains her substantial lead among the Democratic contendders.

Giuliani, the former mayor of New York, trails Mitt Romney in Iowa and New Hampshire among Republican voters, and he lags behind Fred Thompson in South Carolina. But Giuliani is only a few points behind the leader in New Hampshire and South Carolina--within the poll's margin of error--suggesting that the race in those two states is too tight for anyone to be declared a clear front-runner.

The poll also found that Republicans are only lightly committed to their favorite candidates. For example,

a sizable 72% of Iowa Republicans who favored a candidate said they might decide to back someone else.

It's a different story with the Democrats.

More....

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`Bunker` mode for U.S. bases in Iraq

Kevin Drum at `The Washington Monthly` blog asks a very important question in his article, `REVOLT AT THE PENTAGON?`:

Second, even if the generals do stand their ground, can someone explain how this makes sense? We're not fixing things now even with 168,000 troops, and if we draw down we're supposedly going to unleash a massive civil war. So what are 50,000 troops in scattered outposts going to do while that's going on? Hunker down? Head out and get slaughtered? Evacuate? I just don't see how this makes any sense at all.

As Mr. Drum asks, what are 50,000 American troops scattered around Iraq at various Forward Operating Bases going to do?  

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Obama to reboot his Iraq policy and rhetoric.

Cross-posted in Orange

Last week I implored Barack Obama to step up on Iraq.

On Wednesday of this week, he will be doing just that.

Context and what to look for below the fold.

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Norman Hsu Continues to Make News

After yesterday's Wall St. Journal article on fundraising bundler Norman Hsu who is a big contributor this year to Hillary Clinton and who has contributed to many other Democrats in the past three years, his lawyer responded and the media got its interest piqued.

There's still no indication there are any problems with Hsu's political contributions or activities, which began about three years ago, but the LA Times is reporting a "teaser" for a story today that Hsu pleaded guilty to grand theft and agreed to serve a three year prison sentence, but never showed up, making him a fugitive.

I did check California's criminal records database and there are entries in San Mateo County for San Francisco Municipal Court and Redwoods Superior Court for a Norman Hsu....back in 1991. No other details are included.

Hsu's lawyer says he has no recollection of pleading guilty or agreeing to prison time.

Today the Journal follows through, apparently not knowing about the criminal charges, and explains why "bundling" is a legal practice:

It is legal for individuals to ask friends, colleagues and family members to make donations to political candidates, though not to reimburse people for such donations.

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George W. Obama? Or Hillary R. Bush?


Ira Chernus, Professor of Religious Studies at the University of Colorado at Boulder, has written probably the most sobering article I've yet seen about the prospects for the Iraq occupation, and what can be expected from Democratic presidential candidates.

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Obama Calls Campaign's Clinton Memo a "Dumb Mistake"

Barack Obama called his "Hillary Clinton (D-Punjab)" memo a "dumb mistake" today.

"It was a dumb mistake on our campaign's part and I made it clear to my staff in no uncertain terms that it was a mistake," Obama told the AP in a brief interview in which he referred to the memo as "unnecessarily caustic."

Obama said he wasn't aware of the memo before it circulated and steps have been taken to avoid a recurrence.

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Hillary Attacks Condi Rice and Cheney

A great 16 second moment in the debate -- Hillary blasts Condi Rice and Dick Cheney for their lack of diplomacy skills.

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Hillary Joins the Anti-Imus Movement

Hillary Clinton has come out swinging against Don Imus. Her campaign sent out this alert:

She has started an initiative on her website encouraging people to show their support for the young women of Rutgers (note: people who send messages do not get signed up for the campaign email list unless they opt in).

After praising the women of the Rutgers' team, she writes:

Don Imus's comments about them were nothing more than small-minded bigotry and coarse sexism. They showed a disregard for basic decency and were disrespectful and degrading to African Americans and women everywhere.

Please join me in sending the young women of Rutgers a message of respect and support. Show them that we are proud to stand with them and for them."

Question: Will she refuse to appear on his show? Here's her quote:

Hillary Clinton said, "I've never been asked to go on the show and I've never wanted to go on his show...and I certainly don't ever intend to go on his show."

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Hillary's War Vote: She Knew - Then & Now

Why does Hillary cling to the transparent excuse that she would have voted differently had she known then what she knows now? And, why, as kos noted, is Hillary using a pig-headed strategy so reminiscent of Bush's? Maybe because the information known prior to voting "yes" provided the same reasons to say "no" as the information known now. Maybe because Hillary revealed in a candid interview that her "yes" vote reflected a state of mind shared by many Americans, but not conducive to one seeking to be commander-in-chief.

While many Americans are angry that Bush duped them into supporting this war, lawmakers have an oversight duty to question and challenge the Executive Branch on such grave issues as war. And that duty is triggered when the MSM publish credible data that contradict or undermine Bush's prewar claims.

Hillary needs to admit that her vote to authorize force in 2002 was not just a mistake but wrong because she should have voted "no" based on what she knew then.

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Obama's Credit to Selma Marchers Off By Four Years

Politicans have to choose their words carefully these days. Check out the latest critism of Barack Obama's Selma, Al. speech yesterday where he credited the 1965 marchers with empowering his black father and white mother to marry.

Turns out he was born in 1961.

....he credited the "Bloody Sunday" civil rights marchers of 1965 with the fact that his parents -- a black African father and white Kansas mother -- were empowered to fall in love and got married.

"They looked at each other and they decided, 'We know that in the world, as it has been, it might not be possible for us to get together and have a child, but something is stirring across the country because of what happened in Selma, Ala., because some folks are willing to march across the bridge.' And so they got together and Barack Obama Jr. was born. So don't tell me I don't have a claim on Selma, Ala.!"

Obama was born in 1961; the Selma march was four years later. Obama said later that he meant to credit the entire civil rights movement with his parents' union, not just the Bloody Sunday marchers.

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Hillary's Blog Goes Live

Update: I'm the guest poster at Hillary's blog today. If you follow my link, you'll see I've chronicled her election bid since 2000. I haven't yet decided whom I'm supporting to ultimately get the nomination. But I'm heartily endorsing her seeking it.

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Hillary Clinton's blog went live today. Some of you may remember that she asked for submissions to become the first guest poster. More than 10,000 entries were received. The winner with the first post is Kelly G. Here's her entry.

Imagine my surprise when Peter Daou called me today to say my submitted post will be up tomorrow! Out of 10,000 plus submissions, I'm pretty amazed. So don't forget to go on over (when you're not checking out my live-blogging of the Scooter Libby closings at Huffington Post or reading what Big Tent and/or TChris have to say here.)

As I'm sitting in my hotel room in D.C. tonight, which is right across from a fire station with huge sirens going off every half hour or so as the firetrucks respond to the latest emergency, and about to catch up on the news of the day and then watch "24" and "What About Brian", two songs keep resonating through my head: Don Henley's New York Minute .

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